2021 NHL Season Bets

 

I am so excited to see what the 2021 NHL season has in store for us. Over the past few weeks, I’ve put out a bunch of takes and bets on the podcast in an effort to preview the season ahead. For my own sake, and yours, I am compiling all of my takes and bets into one place so that we can reflect on what went right or wrong. Maybe we’ll learn something, or at least there will be accountability, something we don’t have nearly enough of in this world.

First off, all of my player Over/Under prop bets and leans can be found over on DobberHockey. I ended up locking in 11 bets. All of my other bets and leans can be found here.

On my awards betting preview podcast with Cam Robinson, we perused the best bets for the Art Ross, Rocket Richard, Hart and Norris trophies.

My Player Award Picks

Art Ross Pick: Connor McDavid

McDavid topped my projections for the season ahead with 76 points in 52 games. He is also the betting favourite at odds as low as 3/1 to win the scoring race. Not juicy enough for me to bet.

Art Ross Bet: Elias Pettersson 35/1

I want to believe. It seems a foregone conclusion that Pettersson will score 100 points in a season. It’s a matter of when. When does his talent peak, his health hold, his supporting cast support (perhaps even elevate), his coach provide the minutes, etc? Give Pettersson the McDavid/Matthews workload and see how much he can score.

My projections have him at 57 points in 53 games, but a slight uptick in minutes could push him even higher. Then, all it takes is some injury luck and he might come in as the league’s top scorer.

Rocket Richard Pick: Auston Matthews

It feels a bit silly to pick anyone else but Alexander Ovechkin, while the reigning, defending, undisputed best goal scorer on Earth is still playing, but this season promises to be weird. The Canadian Division should see absurd goal totals. Matthews could win this award in one night shooting against Mike Smith. Meanwhile, Ovechkin lands in the league’s toughest, potentially stingiest division in the East. The betting odds reflect this reality, putting Matthews as a heavy favourite, while Ovechkin comes in at 6/1.

I have Matthews and Ovechkin projected to finish 1-2, neck-and-neck, at 35 and 34 goals respectively. Given such a tight race, there’s no way I’d bet Matthews at +350. Not juicy enough.

Rocket Richard Bet: Alexander Ovechkin 6/1

Every year we seem ready to crown a new goal-scoring champion, meanwhile Ovechkin has won this award in seven of the last 8 seasons. I can get him at 6/1? Yeah, I’ll take those odds.

Rocket Richard Bet: Jake Guentzel 25/1

Shop around because you’ll find Guentzel somewhere in the range of 25/1. Why take worse odds when there are better ones out there. 25/1 is the best I’ve found on Guentzel and it is a worthy long shot bet. He is one of the league’s most efficient goal scorers, getting into knife-fighting range despite his slight frame. He doesn’t score from distance the way that Matthews and Ovechkin can, which is why this is a long shot, but an expert at finding soft spots around the net could get hot in a shortened season. I have him projected for 26 goals in 53 games, a top-10 mark. If he can stay healthy and get some bounces that could push higher putting him in the mix by season’s end, which is where I want to be.

Hart Trophy Pick: Connor McDavid

In a normal year, I’d be leaning to Nathan MacKinnon who has been knocking on the door the past couple of seasons. He was my pick last season, and he was a finalist for the award. Then, he went into the bubble and nearly dragged the Avalanche to the Conference Finals. He is starring in Timmies commercials with Sidney Crosby. There is online discourse about him overtaking McDavid for “best player in the game”. People are ready to vote for MacKinnon, even just to validate the argument.

They have a great case! As I said, I picked him for last year’s Hart.

My concern, are people going to watch MacKinnon this year? Who is staying up to watch the Avalanche run over the Los Angeles Kings on a sleepy Tuesday night?

MacKinnon is capable of sweeping the awards. He could win the Art Ross, the Rocket and the Avalanche could cruise to a first place finish. People would hand him the Hart whether they watched him or not. They’ll surely have seen his highlights. Anything short of that type of sweep, however, and I worry he loses this narrative award to someone playing more games in prime time.

People would LOVE to give this to someone in a big market. You don’t think voters are itching to give Crosby one more MVP award? You don’t think they’d vote for a vintage Carey Price performance? You don’t think they’d just as soon see McDavid win some more hardware?

More often than not, the Art Ross and the Hart go hand in hand. If I’ve got McDavid winning the scoring race, then I’ve got him as my Hart favourite as well.

Hart Trophy Bet: No Bet

I didn’t find anything I quite liked enough. McDavid at around 4/1 and MacKinnon at around 5/1 aren’t quite juicy enough for a narrative award. Pettersson at 18/1 is intriguing, but I’d rather have him at 35/1 for the Art Ross. Crosby at 25/1 is tasty, but I don’t love it. Jack Eichel at 20/1 would be intriguing if the Sabres were in a division where you could realistically see them sneaking into a playoff spot. I’m just staying away from this one.

Norris Trophy Pick: Dougie Hamilton

Hamilton was well on his way to contending for this trophy last season before a knee injury cost him a third of the season. The Hurricanes should only be better, and perhaps contend for the Central Division crown (more on that later). Hamilton will get a major offensive push and paired with Norris candidate Jaccob Slavin should run over opponents. Hamilton as a top-3 defenseman scorer, with a ludicrous plus/minus (voters still look at it so bettors should too) on a winning team should be a shoo-in for Norris contention.

Norris Trophy Bet: Dougie Hamilton 8/1

I like this so much that I am betting it. You’ll have to shop around to find the right odds. I’m not sure I’d bet it at 6/1 which you’ll find on some sites.

Norris Trophy Bet: Morgan Rielly 25/1

I also love this as a long shot option. Rielly should get his PP1 usage back, which means POINTS. He’s proven capable of scoring at a point-per-game pace just a couple of years back and could do so again. I have him cautiously projected for 39 points in 52 games, but could easily see him score 50 points this season, which would put him in the Norris hunt.

This being a narrative award, it does hurt Rielly’s cause that he’s never been viewed as strong defensively, but if the Leafs run over the Canadian Division, I could see all the articles fawning over Rielly’s evolved game.

Calder Trophy Pick: Igor Shesterkin 3/1

Shesterkin is in the mix as the betting favourite alongside Alexis Lafreniere and Kirill Kaprizov at similar odds. They are worthy favourites for a reason. Lafreniere is an NHL ready star of a #1 pick. Kaprizov spent half a decade percolating in the worlds second best league and arrives ready to pop. Shesterkin did similarly and flashed Vezina potential in 12 NHL games.

If Shesterkin proves himself a legitimate starter it’ll be hard to deny him this award. That said, I wouldn’t bet it at these odds.

Calder Trophy Bet: Ilya Sorokin 25/1

You may find slightly better odds than this if you shop around, but I locked this in back in November when I did the Calder Betting Preview with Pete Harling:

Sorokin has a roadblock in Semyon Varlamov in his path, but the Barry Trotz system is a proven goldmine for goaltending, and he comes in with as much pedigree as Shesterkin. Given Varlamov’s injury history, would you be shocked to see a ton of Sorokin?

I also favour the Islanders to make the playoffs over the Rangers, so for the “goalie drags team to playoffs narrative” I’d rather bet on Sorokin at these odds than Shesterkin at a sixth of the payout.

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On the Team Totals Mega Preview with Sean Tierney we went through every NHL team’s point total Over/Under and locked in a few bets:

Here are all of my leans and bets:

	Over/Under	82-game	Pick	Lock?
Colorado Avalanche	76.5	112	UNDER	YES
Tampa Bay Lightning	74.5	110	UNDER
Vegas Golden Knights	74.5	110	OVER
Toronto Maple Leafs	73.5	108	UNDER
Boston Bruins	70.5	104	UNDER
Carolina Hurricanes	70.5	104	OVER
St. Louis Blues	69.5	102	UNDER
Philadelphia Flyers	67.5	99	UNDER
Pittsburgh Penguins	67.5	99	OVER
Dallas Stars	65.5	96	OVER
Nashville Predators	65.5	96	UNDER	YES
Calgary Flames	65.5	96	UNDER
Edmonton Oilers	65.5	96	UNDER
Montreal Canadiens	64.5	95	OVER	YES
Columbus Blue Jackets	64.5	95	OVER
Washington Capitals	63.5	93	OVER
Minnesota Wild	62.5	92	UNDER	YES
New York Islanders	61.5	91	OVER
New York Rangers	61.5	91	UNDER
Vancouver Canucks	61.5	91	UNDER
Winnipeg Jets	59.5	88	UNDER
Arizona Coyotes	58.5	86	OVER
Buffalo Sabres	56.5	83	UNDER
Anaheim Ducks	55.5	82	UNDER
San Jose Sharks	53.5	79	UNDER
Chicago Blackhawks	52.5	77	UNDER
New Jersey Devils	51.5	76	UNDER
Los Angeles Kings	49.5	73	OVER
Ottawa Senators	47.5	70	OVER
Detroit Red Wings	42.5	63	OVER	YES

 

On the Power Rankings episode with Alex MacLean we laid out our rankings of various teams:

What we didn’t do, and I haven’t done yet is lay out my picks for division winners, and Stanley Cup favourites so I will do that here.

North Division Winner: Toronto Maple Leafs

No surprise here. The Leafs are heavy favourites. They are the most complete team and only real Cup contender in this division. They can match the star power in Edmonton and Vancouver. They should match the goaltending in Winnipeg, Calgary and Montreal. For all the fervor about their defense corps, they have fewer questions on the blue line than any Canadian team. They should run away with this thing.

At around even odds, they are one of the clearest favourites to win a division in all the NHL. Not juicy enough to bet, but obvious enough to pick.

North Division Bet: No Bet

I like Montreal the most to emerge from the thicket that is the rest of the Canadian Division, but at around 4/1, it isn’t tasty enough to bet. This is a high floor, lower ceiling team.

Every other team you could bet on has these massive flaws. I’ll steer clear of this.

East Division Winner: Boston Bruins

This is the toughest division to pick, with every team in the division fancying themselves a playoff team. I’m leaning on the defensive infrastructure with Patrice Bergeron, Charlie McAvoy and the league’s best tandem in Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak. I’m not so in love with this to bet it though.

East Division Bet: No Bet

The betting market is reflecting the uncertainty of this division quite well. The Bruins are the favourites at around +250, but five other teams come in at 7/1 or below for the division title. Is Buffalo juicy enough at around 15/1 to take a long shot? Maybe, but I have a hard time betting this team when I like six other teams more.

Central Division Winner: Tampa Bay Lightning

Another Division, another lean towards the betting favourite from your guy Steve. Even after losing MVP candidate Nikita Kucherov for the season, the Tampa Bay Lightning come in as the favourites. Maybe that’s because no other team can lose an MVP in Kucherov and roll in another one in Steven Stamkos. What a luxury.

Central Division Bet: Carolina Hurricanes 4/1

This bet is already seeing some action. The Hurricanes are sharing the division with both of last season’s Stanley Cup finalists, but those teams are feeling the pain of their long playoff runs having lost key pieces to injury. That puts the rising Hurricanes in a good spot.

Their system already sets them up for success running over weaker teams with puck possession. Their young talent is improving giving them the type of finishing needed to be a true contender. Questions in goal exist, but the rest of the roster is ready to contend.

West Division Winner: Colorado Avalanche

I’m taking all the front runners and I don’t care. The Avalanche were stacked and then added Brandon Saad and Devon Toews. This team is ludicrous.

West Division Bet: No Bet

The Avalanche are coming in at even odds, which I wouldn’t bet. Vegas isn’t far behind at around 2/1. I’d bet Vegas if the odds were juicier, say 4/1. That’d be enough of an edge to go against the favourites. After all, Vegas is a juggernaut in their own right.

Stanley Cup Winner: Colorado Avalanche

Like I said above, this team is stacked. I bet the Avalanche would have made the Cup Final had they not lost both Philipp Grubauer and Pavel Francouz to injury in the bubble. They damn near beat the Stars with Michael Hutchinson! They’ve only improved and sit in a weak division where they are a virtual lock to make the playoffs. What happens from there is anyone’s guess, but the Avalanche have cracked their Cup window wide open like Tampa Bay a few years back. It seems a matter of when, not if, they hoist the Stanley Cup. However, as the betting favourites at around 6/1, I’m not betting this. Just wait for the playoffs and if no major injuries bet the Avalanche each series and roll the money over.

Stanley Cup Bet: Carolina Hurricanes 20/1

Shop around to find the best odds, but be warned this line has gotten a ton of action, and appears to be unavailable anywhere. At one point you could have gotten them at 25/1 but that’s long gone.

This marks my third season betting on the Hurricanes breakout. A couple of years ago, back when they were a 50/1 long shot, I was able to hedge against the Hurricanes in the Conference Final and earn a profit. I wasn’t as fortunate on them at 30/1 last season. Depending on how the bracket shakes out the Hurricanes may not have to face the Bruins, who have ousted them the last two playoffs.

I love this team on the rise and am having fun having a stake in their success.