What Can We Expect in a Pierre-Luc Dubois Trade?
What in the hell might a Pierre-Luc Dubois trade look like?
Well, good news, we have some history of similar type
trades. Young, high lottery pick players getting tired of one location have
frequently moved teams.
First, let’s talk about that contract. He signed a two-year extension
with the Blue Jackets before the season began, with hopes it might help
facilitate a trade. His $5M average annual value comes in at a reasonable level
for a player of his talents. Consider that from the 2016 draft class a handful
of top-10 picks are now on their second contracts and only Jesse Puljujarvi
(after a case of gross mismanagement) has signed for a significantly lower AAV.
Auston Matthews got a mega deal. Patrik Laine (playing out a
similar story in Winnipeg) signed a pricier bridge deal. Clayton Keller signed
on for the full eight-year bag with Arizona and has a $7M AAV as a result. Dubois’
eight-year deal is coming in North of that Keller number you can rest assured.
And his next deal is almost certainly going to be pricier no matter the years.
The qualifying offer on Dubois will be $6M and he’ll be arbitration eligible.
More on the impacts of that contract later, but what it does
offer is a list of comparable contracts. Using Capfriendly’s contract
comparison tool we can bring a list of players who signed similar bridges as
Dubois:
Looking at the top 12 names on that list. Look at how many
of those guys were traded soon after signing their bridge! As it turns out,
outside of Tampa Bay, when a team and player can’t figure out how to go long on
a contract, it usually means that player is leaving town. Let’s break down some
of these trades to get an idea of where it might go with Dubois.
Ryan O’Reilly
O’Reilly was the #33 pick in the 2009 NHL draft, but he also
was the rare second rounder to leap directly from the draft into the NHL at 18
years old. He was an impact player immediately for the Avalanche, and one could
argue that he has been a more impactful player than Matt Duchene, whom the
Avalanche selected at #3 that year.
This second contract was an offer sheet O’Reilly had signed with
the Calgary Flames after struggling to come to terms with Colorado. What’s crazy
is that this took place during the lockout shortened 2013 season and O’Reilly
was playing overseas. Had Colorado declined to match the offer sheet, O’Reilly
would have required re-entry waivers to join the Flames, who could have then
lost him for nothing to a third team. I assume the Flames would have figured
something out. Perhaps O’Reilly would have remained overseas on a loan and he
would have come over for the follow year. Regardless, the Avalanche matched,
and the Flames avoided disaster. Perhaps, like the Canadiens offer sheet to
Sebastian Aho in the summer of 2019, it was an offer sheet to hurt an opponent,
but never really designed to extract the player.
O’Reilly was eventually traded to Buffalo in the summer of 2015.
The trade:
|
Buffalo Receives |
Colorado Receives |
|
|
Ryan O'Reilly |
Nikita Zadorov |
|
|
Jamie McGinn |
Mikhail Grigorenko |
|
|
JT Compher |
||
|
2015 2nd |
In retrospect, this is an underwhelming return for a future Conn Smythe/Selke Winner, but you can see the idea. A couple of former 1st round picks, with upside and some depth to fill things out.
Max Domi
Domi is an intriguing file because he was traded not once
but twice. The first trade was to Montreal where he signed his bridge deal, and
then most recently he joined Dubois in Columbus at the conclusion of his bridge.
The Trades:
|
Montreal Receives |
Arizona Receives |
|
|
Max Domi |
Alex Galchenyuk |
|
This is the classic prove-it trade for both sides. You could
argue that both Galchenyuk and Domi offer examples of what Columbus could ask
for in return, although I’d push back a bit. There’s a reason these two had to
be swapped in a prove-it deal: they’re performance fell off after promising
beginnings. Up until requesting a trade Dubois’ arrow has only pointed up.
There’s no prove-it required.
For what it’s worth, Galchenyuk has since crashed and burned
and is now clinging to his last hope in Ottawa, while Domi performed well in his
first season but regressed significantly in year two leading to trade #2:
|
Columbus Receives |
Montreal Receives |
|
|
Max Domi |
Josh Anderson |
|
|
2021 3rd |
||
The early returns call this a win for the Montreal side, but
with injuries a factor we’ll wait a while to call anything. What we can say is
that Dubois is a few years of stagnation or injuries away from us using this as
a comparable trade.
Dylan Strome
Strome, the #3 pick in 2015 – we’ve talked about a lot of #3
picks so far! – was dealt before his entry-level deal even ended so we probably
can’t use this comparable. If anything, what he was dealt for might offer a
better example:
|
Chicago Receives |
Arizona Receives |
|
|
Dylan Strome |
Nick Schmaltz |
|
|
Brendan Perlini |
A bit of a prove-it deal here for both Strome and Schmaltz (the
#20 pick in 2014). Schmaltz signed a fat extension with Arizona not long after
this trade, while Strome is riding a bridge for the cap crunched Blackhawks.
If we flip this deal and consider Schmaltz the prize, taking
a swing on a distressed former lottery pick (Strome) is the low-end type return
you might hope for if you’re the Blue Jackets.
Nazem Kadri
Kadri’s trade out of Toronto came long after his bridge
deals, to when he was more established as a #2 centerman, miscast as a #3 and
signed for longer term. That said, I think the trade still offers an example of
what a “hockey trade” could look like for Columbus:
|
Toronto Receives |
Colorado Receives |
|
|
Tyson Barrie |
Nazem Kadri |
|
|
Alex Kerfoot |
Calle Rosen |
|
|
2020 6th |
2020 3rd |
|
For Toronto, it was about downgrading at the center position
to fill a need on defense. It didn’t work, but you can see the logic.
Do the Blue Jackets have a glaring position of need to fill?
No. They are simply talent starved after seeing a bunch of free agents walk
over the past few seasons. Insiders keep talking about “hockey trades” but what
they really mean is that the Blue Jackets want someone who can help today.
Ryan Johansen
Okay, now here’s a strong comparable. The Blue Jackets must
feel a bit of Groundhog Day after already having gone through this situation
with Johansen. I’m not sure they ever got an overt trade request, but after
haggling over his second contract the Blue Jackets must have had a sense that
this was not a long-term relationship. Plus, they got an offer they got an
offer they could not refuse:
|
Columbus Receives |
Nashville Receives |
|
|
Seth Jones |
Ryan Johansen |
|
Columbus turned the #4 pick from the 2010 draft, a guy who
everyone thought was a legit #1 centerman into the #4 pick from the 2013 draft,
and a potential #1 defenseman. Jones was active but hadn’t yet emerged as he
was playing behind a stacked defense corps in Nashville, but was an immediate
hit for the Blue Jackets, breaking out with greater opportunity. This was a
homerun and the Blue Jackets would love a similar sort of outcome.
Ryan Strome
Strome, the #5 pick in the 2011 draft, cannot find a home or
someone to love him long term. He has now signed his third bridge deal, with
his third NHL franchise and has been traded twice giving us a couple of options
to break down:
|
Edmonton Receives |
Islanders Receive |
|
|
Ryan Strome |
Jordan Eberle |
|
Eberle was coming off his least productive NHL season, where his shooting percentage inexplicably dropped below 10% for the first and only time. Edmonton decided this was the time to move the winger and address their depth. It also helped that after a spending spree the summer before they were looking to cut some costs. Strome offered pedigree, upside and a cheaper contract.
The problem is this type of deal is easier in the offseason.
If the Blue Jackets can wait, they’ll have an easier go trying to take
advantage of a desperate team this summer. They probably can’t wait though.
Oh yeah, there was a second Strome trade, did the Oilers recoup
value?
|
Edmonton Receives |
Rangers Receive |
|
|
Ryan Spooner |
Ryan Strome |
|
Once again, the Oilers waited until their player diminished
in value and then traded him for pennies on the dollar. Look, Spooner flashed
some scoring potential, once but this was a failure of pro scouting and not the
first of the Peter Chiarelli era. This was also a failure of self-scouting. The
Oilers did not understand the value of their own player or how to put that
player in a position to succeed. As a result, they pulled a reverse paperclip
for the ages.
I don’t think the Blue Jackets are at risk of undervaluing
Dubois here, so it’s important they aim high.
How about some comparables not off the Capfriendly list?
Matt Duchene
This one is fun because it is a three-way deal and involves
the swapping of not one but two former #3 picks, and it results in the
Avalanche getting what became the #4 pick. It’s also a great example because it
involved Duchene requesting a trade.
|
Colorado Receives |
Nashville Receives |
Ottawa Receives |
||
|
Sam Girard |
Kyle Turris |
Matt Duchene |
||
|
Shane Bowers |
||||
|
Andrew Hammond |
||||
|
Vladislav Kamenev |
||||
|
2019 1st (Bowen Byram) |
||||
|
2018 2nd |
||||
|
2019 3rd |
||||
The lesson here, ignore the media, wait for the right deal.
Also, maybe see if David Poile is still desperate for a centerman.
Kyle Turris
Before the three-way deal that landed him in Nashville,
Turris was involved in a smaller deal that got him out of Arizona:
|
Arizona Receives |
Ottawa Receives |
|
|
David Rundblad |
Kyle Turris |
|
|
2012 2nd |
I have to say, there is an alternate history where the Coyotes don’t have such miserable lottery luck and instead land the #1 overall pick and a franchise player. Instead they’ve been picking 3rd or later and suffering the consequences. After rushing Turris to the league, it wasn’t long before he was a distressed asset.
Ottawa had no need for Rundblad who had just come over to
North America because Erik Karlsson was establishing himself as one of the
league’s best defensemen. They swapped the promising Rundblad who had dominated
in Sweden for the distressed Turris. This one worked out better for Ottawa as
Rundblad could never quite hack it at the NHL level. Before his time? Perhaps.
Jonathan Drouin
Not explicitly a centerman, but many have thought his
playmaking would look good up the middle. The #3 pick in the 2013 draft had at
times flashed potential on the blooming Lightning, but was falling down the
depth chart as Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat emerged. He
eventually requested a trade but was instead handed fourth line minutes and
even some time in the minors. There was plenty of media pressure on this one,
but Steve Yzerman refused to acquiesce until he found his price the following
summer:
|
Montreal Receives |
Tampa Bay Receives |
|
|
Jonathan Drouin |
Mikhail Sergachev |
|
|
2018 6th |
2018 2nd |
|
Sergachev had only played four NHL games for the Canadiens but was viewed as a major future piece. He has panned out in spades.
*
So, what can recent history tell us about how Jarmo
Kekelainen should approach Dubois’ trade demand and what kind of return should
we expect?
#1 – No matter how ugly this gets the Blue Jackets cannot
settle. Back yourself into a corner and you’ll sell low like Peter Chiarelli.
Follow the Sakic/Yzerman playbook. These guys are well regarded in great part
because of their handling of these delicate situations. Dubois has a contract for
two seasons and is a restricted free agent after that. The Blue Jackets have a
lot of runway and should use it if they must.
#2 – Amazingly, a lot of the above moves were made
mid-season so this doesn’t have to wait that long, however this trade will be
easier in the offseason when teams have more flexibility. Even in a flat cap
environment there will be more teams with room to maneuver come summer. Also,
they won’t have the Seattle expansion draft hanging over their heads. COVID
protocols also won’t be as impactful in the offseason as they’ll be on summer
moves.
#3 – The big theme of most of these trades is the major piece
coming back for a high-pedigree centerman is a high-pedigree defenseman. It
makes sense. The two hardest positions to fill are center and defense. If you
have to lose one, you hope to land the other in return. It won’t always work
out (Barrie, Rundblad, Zadorov), but you are hailed a hero if it does (Jones,
Sergachev, Girard).
In the rumoured Montreal-Columbus talks Alexander Romanov
was the first ask from the Blue Jackets, so this through line appears to hold.
What do you think is coming back to Columbus for Pierre-Luc Dubois?
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